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Shove Off, MMOG Fans– You’re Not the Future of Gaming
By Cameron Sorden | January 3, 2008
I’ve written a little bit about this before, but lately there have been some interesting and perhaps troubling articles about the future of online gaming. First, there’s the New York Times article which has quotes from some Disney executives and examines the impact of more youth-oriented online games like Webkinz and Club Penguin (which aren’t even close to being youth-exclusive, considering how many mothers are busy earning in-game cash for their kids).
According to the NYT article, adult-oriented games are far less popular than their kid-oriented counterparts. Here’s an excerpt:
Second Life and other virtual worlds for grown-ups have enjoyed intense media attention in the last year but fallen far short of breathless expectations. The children’s versions are proving much more popular, to the dismay of some parents and child advocacy groups. Now the likes of the Walt Disney Company, which owns Club Penguin, are working at warp speed to pump out sister sites.
They put that in some context with the following numbers:
Worlds like Webkinz, where children care for stuffed animals that come to life, have become some of the Web’s fastest-growing businesses. More than six million unique visitors logged on to Webkinz in November, up 342 percent from November 2006, according to ComScore Media Metrix, a research firm.
Club Penguin, where members pay $5.95 a month to dress and groom penguin characters and play games with them, attracts seven times more traffic than Second Life. In one sign of the times, Electric Sheep, a software developer that helps companies market their brands in virtual worlds like Second Life and There.com, last week laid off 22 people, about a third of its staff.
To be fair, they’re comparing apples and oranges. Anyone who’s done their homework knows that Second Life is way, way overhyped. I’d be more interested in seeing comparisons to the major game companies, which I could go look up numbers for now… but I feel lazy today. Still, that’s some crazy growth from the kid-oriented worlds. They’re serious business– enough that TTH recently launched a sister site dedicated specifically to that kind of game called Ten Ton Hamster. You can’t brush them aside or dismiss them.
Disney’s really ramping up production, too, with an idea that you would think is blindingly obvious. Create a big portfolio of games to cater to multiple different player types, all with different interests (sounds kind of like where the old-school players are heading too, huh?):
Still, one world, even a very successful one, does not alter the financial landscape at a $35.5 billion company like Disney. So Disney is pursuing a portfolio approach, investing $5 million to $10 million per world to develop a string of as many as 10 virtual properties, people familiar with Disney’s plans said.
Disney’s goal is to develop a network of worlds that appeal to various age groups, much like the company’s model. Preschool children might start with Pixie Hollow or Toon Town, another of Disney’s worlds, grow into Club Penguin and the one for “Cars” and graduate to “Pirates of the Caribbean” and beyond, perhaps to fantasy football at ESPN.com.
For the record, that’s the same strategy that I think a company like SOE would do well to adopt, instead of presenting a slew of games all aimed at a fairly similar demographic. Getting kids attached to a brand at a young age and keeping them loyal as they grow up is a lesson from marketing 101, and it works. But you need to have options and varied offerings to do it in an industry like this.
The second article that I find a little disconcerting is World In Motion’s summary of JP Morgan’s 312-page report which predicts future trends in e-commerce. Quote:
The report highlighted Disney’s acquisition of Club Penguin in particular as evidence that kid-focused virtual worlds are continuing to grow at a fast clip — but the researchers are not as optimistic about these kinds of products for adults.
States the report, “We are bullish on sites for children. Virtual worlds present parents an opportunity to let their kids play online and interact in a closed environment that is perceived as safe, especially when sites are operated by companies with trusted brands. We think sites aimed at adults have yet to prove mainstream appeal.”
With all of the buzz seemingly skipping over what we (as a community) generally consider the “real MMOGs,” is it possible that adult-oriented virtual worlds and MMORPGs will see their funding opportunities dry up as investors shift the majority of their focus to online games aimed squarely at the 5-15 crowd of both genders as opposed to the more traditional 18-40 male demographic that fantasy violence and sci-fi tends to appeal to? Everyone talks about how the increasing publicity and success of WoW is good for everyone in the industry, but I wonder if we’ll really just have a scenario where games for kids are the standard and a few random titles survive for we strange adults who still play online games?
World of Warcraft is grabbing a lot of attention with its blaring proclamations of 9 million paying subscribers, but you and I know that you have to be both crazy lucky and crazy skillful to achieve that level of success– a hard lesson that plenty of game companies have learned in the last year and plenty more will be learning in the next few years. Will games for kids be the more attractive bet amidst news of more traditional MMOs repeatedly dying in production or failing to meet expectations once launched?
Look at what kids (who seem to enjoy a very different kind of game) have to offer versus the current MMOG fans:
- Kids seem to be far more accepting of real money transactions than fans of traditional MMOGs, on average.
- Kids have more time to invest in these games than adults, and thus, can become more invested.
- Kids are arguably more likely to spend money on games (when parents have provided funds) because they aren’t earning it.
- Kids are more susceptible to advertising and marketing efforts, including retention through branding, than adults who are used to being marketed at and have pre-existing ideas about what they expect from a game.
- Kids are more valuable to a company as potential long-term customers than someone who is 20-30+.
- Kids are arguably more easily pleased than adults who tend to want more depth and complexity out of their games.
- Games are already viewed as an “activity for children.” There’s no inherent societal hurdle for them to overcome when marketing online games to kids. It’s still far more socially acceptable to be a kid or even a mom on Webkinz than it is to let everyone know how many hours per week you clock in WoW, which is a real issue in attracting new players.
While I still firmly believe that online games for both kids and adults are here to stay and that a market exists for all kinds of games, I’m concerned that we’re not going to see nearly the level of popularity or diversity that some people are predicting for online games that cater to adults in the future (relative to games for kids). Ultimately, I’m worried that we just can’t get away from the idea that games are for children.
Topics: business, community, mmorpg, real money transactions |
January 4th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Funny thing happened here. I replaced “kid MMORPGs” with “beanie babies” and thought it was the 90’s all over again.
I laugh at the developers buying into this trend and predict a very hard reality for them when all the big players start messing around in it. There will be a period of success, but it will be short lived and the market will be flooded. Guess where we’ve all seen this before?
Not even mentioning that the only long term chance for these projects is to brand kids for life and continue to produce new branded products targeted at their increasing age group. Problem being, it usually only works for one company and the rest are out the door.
I hate to even think of what happens to these games in the wake of any web 2.0 wrinkles.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:37 am
It’s entirely possible that this could be fad, just like beanie babies, tamagotchi, and fanny packs.
But on the other hand, it could also be a shift in consumer preferences to more digital toys.
*shrug*
January 5th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
[…] Shove Off, MMOG Fans– You’re Not the Future of Gaming […]
January 7th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Fanny packs were a fad? When? Eww…
I don’t think having a boom in one should take away from the other. In fact, I think they should feed into each other. Parents who are playing MMOs should have safe options for the little gamers they are raising. And kids grow up into adult gamers (all too quickly, too). So you should have both markets being well fed without taking away from the other.
Just because you’re serving something cool at the little kids’ table doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot of eats for the big kids.
January 20th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
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